Who's better?

Pick two sprinters. The model gives the chance that one finishes ahead of the other when both start in the same heat.

Skier A

Skier B

87%

KLAEBO finishes ahead of CHANAVAT

Settled: KLAEBO is stronger

90% range: 68% to 96%

Out of 10 head-to-heads: about 9 to 1

Show the math

Strength: KLAEBO θ = 7.07 ± 0.57, CHANAVAT θ = 5.13 ± 0.46
Gap: Δθ = 7.07 − 5.13 = 1.94
Chance: P = 1 / (1 + e^−1.94) = 0.87
Uncertainty of the gap: √(0.57² + 0.46²) = 0.73. 90% range: Δθ ± 1.645 × 0.73 = 0.74 … 3.14, so P = 0.68 … 0.96.

Compare within one technique only. Classic and Free strengths are estimated on separate scales, so a Classic θ and a Free θ can't be put side by side.